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Dear Clients, A lot going on, with varying topics impacting both global and local shipping. We have endeavoured to summarise the key topics that are both front page news, but also some lessor known impacts that could come into play. Firstly starting with Freight Rates, we posed the questions last month, are GRI’S starting to stick, in particular into the EAST COAST? It appears that they are although at a slower pace than the shipping lines are pushing for. GRI announcements In March carriers were pushing for GRI’s on the 1st and 15th of March from North Asia however for most carriers at least, the 15th March GRI wasn’t forthcoming. Notifications have been received for 1st April (which appears to have held at this stage) with some carriers also pushing for a 15th April GRI. Even this early into April, some carriers have notified the market of their intent to increase rates again 1st May. Southeast Asian rates have been a little more stable than North Asia however carriers have again gone to the market with GRI notification for 15th April Blank Sailings Shipping lines are continuing to use an aggressive blank sailing programme in an attempt to increase rates through April and into May. This week we have seen multiple carries send blank sailing notices for the same port of loading for the same week. This week for example (week 15) multiple shipping lines are omitting Shanghai, Yantian and Ningbo. What is the effect of this you might ask? Reduce supply of container space in Week 15 resulting in greater demand for space in week 16. We urge you to discuss current bookings and your required landed date(s) with your Transways contact so that we can tailor your bookings to meet available services, whilst the blank sailings are impacting scheduling. US Trade War We posed the question last month of the effects of the US Trade War on global shipping. Since then it’s been well documented that the Trump Administration has imposed tariffs on almost all counties on earth whom they trade with, with Australia being no exception. Economists in Australia have been almost universal in their belief that the 10% tariff to be imposed on Australian goods exported into the US is not likely to have any material effect on the Australian economy (Australia’s export trade to the US is just 3% of our total export trade by value) however they have been universal in that Australia is likely to feel the some flow on effects such as currency volatility raising the cost of most imported products. In news out of CHINA, we are hearing as much as 50% of the scheduled ship’s due to depart in APRIL have now been cancelled due to the demand for shipping dropping almost overnight. Many shippers with containers at the wharf have also requested they be returned and not shipped as buyers have cancelled the order at the 11th hour. It really is throwing world trade out of sync and its too early to predict what impact this will have on shipping into Australia. USA TAX on CHINA owned or made Ships. This one is not headline news, but you may have read about the tax President Trump is looking to apply to China owned or manufactured ships. If media reports are true, it could be as high as USD1 million per ship, per port call. How shipping lines manage this and look to avoid it will be very interesting. It could disrupt shipping schedules as they look to swap vessel’s into and out of USA TRADE. Panama Canal Another President Trump target that could derail shipping is his attempt to take back control of the Panama canal. Ports at either end of the canal are owned by a Hong Kong based port and terminal operator which he sees as a threat, from all reports. Therefore President trump is looking to take control of the canal once again. For the record, the canal handles roughly 5% of world container volume, and as we have seen with the RED SEA closure, diversions cause significant impact to global shipping. Trade Volumes London based Container Trade Services (CTS) have reported global trade increased in 2024 by 6% to 183.2m TEU’s shipped. North America demonstrated the most significant grown for imports, increasing 12% year on year. Australian & Oceania also featured with impressive growth in exports to the Indian Sub-Continent and the Middle East of 34% YoY. Despite a significant increase in export volume to the Indian Sub-Continent and the Middle East, we have seen a mixed bag of results locally with the Port of Melbourne reporting volumes were up in 2024 by 9% to 3.396m TEU (import & export volumes) to the Port of Fremantle is reporting dramatically lower volumes in Feb-25 (down approx. 29%) compared to Jan-25. Patrick Terminals & Maritime Union of Australia In welcomed news from the waterfront, we are pleased to report that Patrick Terminals (who operate containers terminals in BNE/SYD/MEL/FRE) have signed an Enterprise Agreement (EBA) with the MUA extending the current agreement to 31 Dec 2028. The result is expected provide industry certainly across the 4 Patrick terminals for another 3 years. Countdown to the Federal Election Its not that often shipping news makes it into the election promises of the major Parties however over the weekend, both the Coalition and Labour have advised that should they win Government, they intend to cancel the 99 year lease the Landbridge Group, (a Chinese based Capital Investment company) for the Port of Darwin. No details on how this will be tackled have been released by either Party given Landbridge’s contract! Should you wish to discuss any of these points, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your key contact @ Transways Logistics International. |
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